On July 30, 2026, the reputable tech outlet The Verge published an insightful analysis regarding the decline in confidence in venture investments in artificial intelligence (AI). This trend, originally driven by the "Situational Awareness" thesis, is encountering waves of skepticism from the financial sector as massive return promises remain unfulfilled. The article warns against investment funds being overly confident in surreal future AI scenarios while neglecting fundamental financial laws.
Background & Causes
The "Situational Awareness" thesis was initially popularized through predictive analytical documents forecasting the breakneck speed of AI development toward artificial general intelligence (AGI). Based on these forecasts, numerous financial institutions and venture capital funds poured billions of dollars into the race to build semiconductor chip infrastructure and massive data centers. However, as noted by The Verge, naming financial entities with highly theoretical or overly ambitious terms often leads to ironic situations when the market enters a cooling phase. Over-optimism about machine self-awareness has caused many investors to ignore real liquidity risks, leading to cracks in financial models as cash flows tighten.
Technical Analysis & Technology
Technically, massive AI bets are based on the assumption that large language models (LLMs) will continue to scale according to the Scaling Law without encountering any physical barriers or data limits. However, the operational reality of AI systems in 2026 shows that maintaining the performance of supercomputing clusters requires massive energy sources and extremely expensive maintenance costs. The shortage of high-quality training data, combined with the physical limits of older-generation semiconductor chips, is dragging down the growth rate of next-generation models. This makes optimistic predictions about an AI capable of full situational awareness in the near future distant and lacking practical basis.
Expert Opinions & Perspectives
Many leading financial experts are beginning to warn of a valuation bubble in the AI technology industry. The analysis by The Verge humorously notes that investment fund managers should avoid choosing overly proud or highly philosophical names to prevent falling into ironic situations when investments "evaporate" beyond control. Historical lessons from the collapse of the Long-Term Capital Management fund or Amaranth Advisors remain highly relevant, proving that no matter how smart theoretical models are, they can still be defeated by harsh market realities and investor panic.
Impact & Future
The shifting attitude of investors toward grandiose claims about the future of AI marks a more realistic and healthier developmental phase for the global technology industry. For tech readers and businesses in Vietnam, this serves as an important lesson to remain sober amidst tech hype waves, focusing resources on practical AI solutions rather than chasing highly risky infrastructure speculation. This market self-correction will help filter out low-quality projects, paving the way for more sustainable and substantive progress in the near future.